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08/13/10
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
The U.S. dollar fought its way higher on the yen in Asia...
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02/23/10
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
The dollar fell against the yen in Asia on Tuesday...
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02/05/10
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
The dollar advanced sharply in the Thursday session...
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01/22/10
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
The Japanese yen hit highs versus all its major competitors...
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01/22/10
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
The three major US stock markets all continued to make negative territory...
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12/24/09
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
The dollar declined for the first time in five sessions against the euro...
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12/04/09
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar...
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11/06/09
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
The US dollar traded lower vs. most major currencies...
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11/05/09
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
Today highlights the week, with both the Bank of England....
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11/05/09
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
The U.S. dollar was under pressure on Thursday....
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10/01/09
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
The US dollar was the weakest of the majors after a brief morning rally as US equities recovered from their session lows. Looking to the news on hand, the third and final reading of US Q2 GDP was changed to -0.7 percent from previous estimates of -1.0 percent as personal consumption, business investment, and government spending were all revised higher. The shift has added to speculation that the US emerged from recession in Q3, though it may be due almost entirely to the "cash for clunkers" program, which ended on August 24. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its Global Financial Stability Report that banks around the world may still need to reveal about half of their losses stemming from the financial and economic crisis, saying that credit risks remain "elevated" even though financial conditions have improved significantly since spring. While the IMF revised their forecasts for total losses in the financial system to $3,400 billion between 2007 and 2010, from the $4,000 billion estimate it announced in April, they also noted that lingering credit risks and weakened banks may keep a lid on new credit and global growth.
On Thursday, the 8:30 ET release of US personal spending is projected to show a whopping 1.1 percent rise for the month of August, which would be the highest reading in nearly 6 years. That said, the increase is likely to be due primarily to sales of durable goods like automobiles as the "cash for clunkers" drove demand for the products higher. At the same time, though, we already know that durable goods orders for the month of August slumped 2.4 percent, which may signal some risks for a disappointing personal spending result. Likewise, personal income is anticipated to rise a slight 0.1 percent, which won't do much to lift the year-over-year rate of -2.4 percent, nor will it indicate any sort of impetus for consumption to stage a strong recovery. That said, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will begin testimony at the House Financial Services Committee hearing at the same time, which will be part of a series of sessions on financial regulation. If Bernanke suggest that significant risks remain throughout the markets because additional regulation has not been pushed through, his comments may override any of the sentiment reflected in the personal spending and personal income reports and subsequently weigh on FX carry trades.
On Thursday, the 8:30 ET release of US personal spending is projected to show a whopping 1.1 percent rise for the month of August, which would be the highest reading in nearly 6 years. That said, the increase is likely to be due primarily to sales of durable goods like automobiles as the "cash for clunkers" drove demand for the products higher. At the same time, though, we already know that durable goods orders for the month of August slumped 2.4 percent, which may signal some risks for a disappointing personal spending result. Likewise, personal income is anticipated to rise a slight 0.1 percent, which won't do much to lift the year-over-year rate of -2.4 percent, nor will it indicate any sort of impetus for consumption to stage a strong recovery. That said, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will begin testimony at the House Financial Services Committee hearing at the same time, which will be part of a series of sessions on financial regulation. If Bernanke suggest that significant risks remain throughout the markets because additional regulation has not been pushed through, his comments may override any of the sentiment reflected in the personal spending and personal income reports and subsequently weigh on FX carry trades.
09/24/09
US Dollar Down Following Federal Reserve Statement - NAR Existing Home Sales May Hit 2-Year High (M)
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
The release...
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08/26/09
US Dollar, Japanese Yen Showing Signs of a Turn as Surge in Consumer Confidence Fails to Impress (M)
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
To say...
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08/24/09
US Dollar, Japanese Yen Dive as Bernanke Comments, Home Sales Boost Optimism for Global Recovery (M)
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
The US dollar...
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08/03/09
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
FUNDAMENTAL MARKET VIEW
Market Brief
The advance reading for 2Q U.S. GDP showed a 1% contraction which surpassed estimates of 1.5% but a revision of the 1Q reading to -6.4% from -5.5% showed that the recession was the deepest in 27 years. Despite the contraction slowing, the 1.2% decline in personal consumption will dim the outlook for future domestic growth. The expectations that unemployment will continue to rise should continue to weigh on consumer spending which will make sustainable growth difficult to attain.
Market Brief
The advance reading for 2Q U.S. GDP showed a 1% contraction which surpassed estimates of 1.5% but a revision of the 1Q reading to -6.4% from -5.5% showed that the recession was the deepest in 27 years. Despite the contraction slowing, the 1.2% decline in personal consumption will dim the outlook for future domestic growth. The expectations that unemployment will continue to rise should continue to weigh on consumer spending which will make sustainable growth difficult to attain.
The dollar weakened further despite a 1% contraction in the GDP and the personal spending reading of -1.2% from the US. Consumers are wary of the recession as pointed out earlier and are resorting to saving more to counter the effects of the recession as pointed out by the worse than expected reading in negative figures. The Euro and Pound moved up to 1.4257 and 1.6733 respectively on the GDP data which pointed to signs that the US economy has started to recover and given rise to further risk appetite.
With major rallies seen in the equity indices and the currency majors, there are high chances of corrections to take place as profit booking could take centre stage if the economic data coming out has little or no major effect on the markets. Investors are waiting for the rate decisions coming out this week from the ECB, BOE and the RBA which could determine the direction of the economies. All three central banks are expected to keep rates unchanged although movements could be seen in the post meeting conference as heads of banks give their statements on the current economic situations especially on stimulus packages.
Today the most important news will be the Retail sales data due from Germany and the manufacturing data from Germany, Euro Zone and the UK. Among all, the ISM manufacturing data from the US could move the markets most where a positive data could see the dollar weakening further against the majors.
TECHNICAL MARKET VIEW
Asia Session
After falling broadly on Friday due to positive US GDP data as well as an upswing in optimism, the US Dollar took another quick hit to start the week in Asia, but the setback was only temporary. The Dollar slide was fueled by a quick round of systems based buying of EUR/USD that sent the pair flying through stops and through the 1.4300 big figure. Traders quickly jumped on the band wagon and sold dollars across the board as the EUR/USD eventually topped out at an almost two month high of 1.4309. Most dollar based pairs followed the same pattern, but the moves were gradually erased as the dollar crept back out from the lows as the day progressed. EUR/USD eventually looked to end lower near 1.4240 for the session. The only currencies that used the US Dollar hiccup as a launch pad were the Aussie and the Kiwi dollars, the AUD/USD of which made a 10 month high near 0.8392 before softening near 0.8370 levels close to the day's end. NZD/USD hit a 10 month high as well, near 0.6652, but eased off close to 0.6625 by London's open. The Yen moves proved uneventful at best, with USD/JPY stuck in a 23 pip range and EUR/JPY hitting an early 135.42 high, but eventually shedding 60 pips to its session lows. Looking ahead, UK Manufacturing PMI should excite in London, and US ISM Manufacturing PMI data in New York could help bring direction to the dollar.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (London Session) prior expected
8/3/2009 6:00 GE Retail Sales (MoM) JUN 0.40% 0.50%
8/3/2009 6:00 GE Retail Sales (YoY) JUN -2.90% 0.90%
03-07 AUG AUG UK Halifax House Prices sa (MoM) JUL -0.50% 0.60%
03-07 AUG AUG UK Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year JUL -15.00% -12.30%
8/3/2009 7:30 SZ SVME-Purchasing Managers Index JUL 41.8 43.6
8/3/2009 7:50 FR PMI Manufacturing JUL F 47.9 47.9
8/3/2009 7:55 GE PMI Manufacturing JUL F 45.2 45.2
8/3/2009 8:00 EC PMI Manufacturing JUL F 46 46
8/3/2009 8:30 UK PMI Manufacturing JUL 47 47.8
07/15/09
US Dollar, Japanese Yen Fall as Goldman Sachs (GS) Reports Record Earnings, US Retail Sales Rise (M)
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
The Japanese yen...
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07/10/09
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
The euro gained ground vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar...
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07/03/09
Asian Session: NFP's disappoint as ECB stays put on rates – low volumes today for 4th July (Evening)
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
NFP’s disappoint...
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06/08/09
Category: Forex News
Posted by: mdn
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was relatively unchanged...
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06/05/09
Category: Forex News
Posted by: mdn
USD/JPY: The Dollar continues in a narrow rang..
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05/13/09
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) felt more pressure...
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05/11/09
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) finished the week...
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05/06/09
US Dollar, Japanese Yen End on Mixed Note as Bernanke Testimony Reflects Cautious Optimism (Morning)
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
Trading in the FX market remained very choppy...
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04/16/09
Category: Forex News
Posted by: aline
FUNDAMENTAL MARKET VIEW
Previous session overview
The greenback strengthened against most of the major currencies on Wednesday as investors continued to buy the safe-haven U.S. dollar due to persistent worries over the economic recession.
The dollar slipped against the yen as China's first quarter growth data failed to match players' last-minute expectations and prompted them to sell the greenback, considered to be riskier than the Japanese unit. The U.S. currency lost more than half a yen to JPY98.92 after China said its gross domestic product rose 6.1% during the January-March period from a year ago - the slowest growth in nearly two decades. Though it was slightly better than the 6.0% growth forecast by economists surveyed by Dow Jones, dealers said currency players had been factoring in a stronger figure in the final hours before the data release.
EUR first rallied to USD1.33, then fell to USD1.3170, ending the European session little changed around USD1.3230. ECB's Weber said the policy rate won't be cut below 1.00%, but added any QE measures will be announced in May.
The British pound rallied above USD1.5000 against the dollar and touched a multi-month high of USD1.5038 as Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors showed that the slump in U.K. house prices eased last month after more than a year of declines lured buyers back into the market.
The Japanese yen steadied against the US dollar and extended its gains against all of the world's major currencies as reports show